My first political post of 08! Here we go!

[wordplay]

So, regarding the Republican primary in Iowa, Marc is convinced that this is good news for us, that Huckabee can't win a national election and that the best thing that could happen for Democrats in '08 is to see him emerge as the candidate. Howard Dean seems to believe the same thing.

I have to admit that I feel differently. (1) I have thought GWB was an absolute idiot, an obvious puppet and a brainless wonder for over 10 years. I kind of STILL can't believe that the American public has elected him president not once, but TWICE. So, while I love my country and try to respect my countrymen, any political argument that's predicated on "people aren't that stupid" is likely to fail with me. (2) More globally, I am deeply worried about what it means when people in America can seriously promote for President someone who has gone on record as "not believing" in Evolution, apparently because he seems to believe that evolution implies descendence from apes. *rolls eyes so hard they stick* This guy makes GWB's anti-science position look reasonable. Having him included in the discourse, having him taken seriously as someone whose ideas and principles are worthy and necessary to guide us, makes me deeply, deeply anxious. I am appalled that voters have validated him even THIS much.

Surprisingly, I don't have much to say about the Democratic race. I have to admit that I'm a John Edwards girl at heart - he appeals to my gut, because Southern Democrats I KNOW - but I have been completely stuck on the Clinton v. Obama question due to experience, electability, all of that stuff and mostly wish I could just merge them into the best supercandidate ever. I'm waiting to see how it all shakes out, because I just want this SO SO BAD and I feel like we could win it and, as per usual, I'm terrified we're going to somehow screw it up for ourselves. (That said? OMG his address last night after he won? Chills like you would not believe, and what a gift that is.)

Comments

[chromodynamics.livejournal.com]

I agree with you that I to was dumbfounded that Shrub won in 2004 (still haven't convinced me he won in 2000). But he did it by uniting the 3 main wings of the Republican party: social conservatives, fiscal conservatives (cut all taxes), and neocons (strong military and aggressive foreign policy). Huckabee can't do that, and isn't even trying. In Iowa, 80% of the people who voted for Huckabee identified themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians. Huckabee won the social conservative vote, clearly, but his policies are not going to please either of the other two groups. That is why I would love to see Huckabee as the nominee: he would have a hard time getting a significant part of the Republican party to vote for him, let alone independents.

That said, I doubt he will win and be the Republican nominee. We shall see what happens in New Hampshire, where the fiscal conservatives and neocons have much greater weight. Already they are talking about it being a contest between Romney and McCain. I think Huckabee can play on his Iowa victory to take states in the South and Midwest, but will have a hard time in the Northeast and West.

By far, I think one of the most interesting stats in the Iowa caucus is that Paul got 10% while Giuliani got only 3.5%. I'm waiting to see the pundits start to sink their teeth into this one, and how it will affect Giuliani's chances in his big state strategy, especially if Huckabee starts making strides in South Carolina and most importantly Florida after his Iowa win.

Another statistic, one that has me hopeful, is turnout. Republican turnout was up (114,000 compared to the 87,000 of 2000), but Democratic turnout (which of course means Democrats and Independents who chose to participate in the Democratic caucus) was WAY up, 220,000 compared to 124,000 of 4 years ago. For a long time I have seen the pundits talk about how interest in the election and voter turnout seems to favor the Democrats this time, and in Iowa we saw actual proof that this is the case.

On the Democratic side, I'm really interested to see what happens on Tuesday in New Hampshire. Clearly this was a victory for Obama; I don't think anyone predicted he would have such a high percentage. Most of the latest polls in NH have Clinton ahead by several, or Obama ahead by a few. It will be interesting to see if Obama will springboard from Iowa and take NH.

Interestingly though, if you look at the state-by-state polls (I like to look at Electoral Vote) so far the closest polls have been in Iowa and NH. In many of the other states, including the big ones like California and New York, as well as the national polls, Hillary is still ahead, by double digits in many. If Obama wins NH, how will that affect these other contests? How about if Hillary wins?

I think the person on the Democratic side who is going to have the toughest time after last night is Edwards. He really needed to win. He did come in second, but the actual figures are like 27.7% for Edwards and 27.5% for Hillary, which is pretty negligible. Furthermore, Hillary actually has more delegates (Obama 16 - Hillary 15 - Edwards 14, according to CNN), though I have no idea why that is the case. If Edwards comes in 3rd in NH, as most polls have him now, and especially if he fails to capture SC, can he continue? Of course, if Edwards were to drop out, I think the main beneficiary will be Obama.

This is truly an interesting election on both sides.

[misscake]

The thing with Huckabee's win in Iowa is that 60% of the Republicans that showed up to caucus admitted to being evangelical Christians - which is clearly his base. New Hampshire is definitely not a hotbed of conservatives so even though Huckabee's done really well there, the nomination is not locked in yet. I have to admit to being a little glad that he beat Romney, though, because that man gives me the creeps.

And McCain and Guiliani didn't even campaign in Iowa - they're focusing on other primaries. So, this is all still very up in the air!

And omg!!! That speech!! Chills AND tears in my eyes.

[darthrami.livejournal.com]

I'm so freaking scared of Huckabee. So scared.


I am an Obama girl, and I'm SOOOOOOOO excited today. (and so happy that my Clinton co-worker isn't here -- she's in NH, helping out prepare for Tuesday -- because then I don't have to smile and nod. Not that I mind Hillary, and like you, sort of wish that she and Obama could be made into one president to rule them all, but I've preferred Obama from the start. \o/ Of course, S is convinced that a woman or a black man can never win against anybody the republicans put up, even huckabee, and I have to admit I'm worried about that, too.)

[if0x.livejournal.com]

Having him included in the discourse, having him taken seriously as someone whose ideas and principles are worthy and necessary to guide us, makes me deeply, deeply anxious. I am appalled that voters have validated him even THIS much.

Yep, if it's any consolation, it unsettles people on this side of the pond, too.

[dramawench.livejournal.com]

I know exactly what you mean. I mean, Huckabee basically threatened to shoot people if they didn't show up at the polls. Yeah, he was joking, but what the hell? How can people vote for an obviously unbalanced asshat like that??? It baffles me and terrifies me.

I feel the same way about the Democratic race. I am having the hardest time making up my mind and part of it is that I'm kind of sick of the entire race already. It's been going on for so long and no one is really capturing my attention or my vote yet.

[darth-kittius.livejournal.com]

When I saw the results this morning my first reaction to Huckabee was "WTF are they thinking?" - however, I quickly came to the same conclusion as I stared at the winners pictures. There's no way Huckabee would win.

Except... yeah... there is that GWB thing. I didn't think he had a shot to win either.

Oh... and your post reminds me it's time to dust off an old "Democrat" or similar icon. 'Tis election year. And even though I'm going to be trying to discuss it as little as possible in order to keep myself calm... I'm quite sure that I'll be commenting on a few more posts like this!

[mofic.livejournal.com]

So, while I love my country and try to respect my countrymen, any political argument that's predicated on "people aren't that stupid" is likely to fail with me.

This worries me, too. I keep thinking of that Barnum quote: "Nobody ever lost money underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

I'm leaning towards voting for Kucinich in the primary. I don't feel it's a "wasted" vote because I think a strong - albeit definitely minority - showing for him reminds our party that it *does* have a left wing and that there are some of us out there who believe in universal health insurance, same-sex marriage, etc. In the general election, I will gladly vote for whomever the Dems give me. And I think we have a real embarrassment of riches this year: three candidates who are all smart, competent, with relevant experience, each of whom has the skills, the contacts, and the experience to make a good POTUS. Divorced from policies and positions, that's a wonderful thing to have. The Republicans have *one* who fits that bill: John McCain...

Hmm, I need an election icon, or at least a USA icon. I'll use my New Year one.

[malakym.livejournal.com]

Last night watching Obama's address was pretty much the first time in a while I actually felt a surge of hope.

[zorb]

I'm still undecided about my primary vote, but in the good way - I would be happy if any of the three Dems got it. But I'm nervous about Huckabee, too. If you look at any of his ideas, he's a crackpot, obviously, but he hides it so well! The guy is funny, charismatic, and comes off as a straight-shooter. He'll gather a lot of support on personality alone, from those who aren't so concerned with looking at the details.

[athenienne.livejournal.com]

Well, ditto. On all counts. I'm sad for Edwards because my gut AND my head both adore him. I really think he has the experience and the intelligence to make an outstanding president, but it just doesn't seem like a real possibility now.

[automaticdoor]

Amen on everything you said. Edwards is like my first love and has been since like 2003. My second choice would be Obama, but honestly, as long as we have a Dem in the WH, I would be thrilled, and any of our top three would make a good president.\

...I need to get a new political icon. 'Tis the season.

[sistermagpie.livejournal.com]

I feel the same way about Huckabee. It's not just "Oh, I don't believe that" because science is important, dammit, and it's already getting attacked! (Just finished the book "The Triumph of Evolution" so I've been thinking about that lately.)

[ellen-fremedon.livejournal.com]

I wouldn't give up on Edwards yet; unless he completely washes out in NH, and does notably below expectations in SC, he's very much in the race.

Huckabee's own party is going to crucify him for mentioning the class and economic issues they Do Not Talk About; I don't think he has a chance at the nomination. (Which is a relief, since he scares me, too.)

[ceilidh]

I'll be happy with either of the three Dems, though I prefer Edwards. Education is my big thing, obviously, and I like his policies.

My die-hard Democrat father said he would vote Republican before he votes for Obama, and it makes me sick because I know he's not the only 'old white guy' who would refuse to vote on skin color. Sigh.

[photosinensis.livejournal.com]

About Bush's election: the first time he was elected, we didn't vote for him. There's emerging evidence that the vote was rigged the second time he was elected: there have been convictions in Ohio.

That said, nobody I know takes Huckabee even remotely seriously, not even the conservatives. Most of the conservatives I know are sick of the whole Christian pandering and want to move on from topics of religion.

[in-a-tizzy.livejournal.com]

I told my mother we'd have to move to Canada if Bush got elected in 2000. I told my boyfriend that we will have to move to Canada if Huckabee becomes president. I have a bit more pull than I did in 2000.

I think Huckabees record on taxes will catch up with him and a lot of more moderate Republicans are uneasy with his stance of evolution.

[twoapennything.livejournal.com]

I could have written this post myself. I totally agree. If Huckabee is elected president, I'm moving to Canada. Seriously.

[quintus-marcius.livejournal.com]

As an outsider, I am to some extent gratified that people in America are having difficulty choosing between the Democrat candidates - it suggests that I am in the same position not because I am ill-informed, but because there are several good candidates, albeit with contrasting strengths and weaknesses.

The BBC's North America editor, who I have a lot of respect for, thinks that Huckabee's win in Iowa is good for McCain. Certainly if I were a non-registered Democrat-leaning voter in New Hampshire, I would vote for McCain on Tuesday. Although it still concerns me that he was beaten in Iowa by a fictional character.